Each year before Groundhog Day, the Insurance Information Institute invites a panel of Wall Street stock analysts and industry professionals to come out of their holes, look around for their shadow and forecast the outlook for the industry. Legend has it that if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter. While Phil did indeed see his shadow in 2006, most insurance analysts predict that premium growth will heat up in 2006 after cooling off substantially in 2005. This year’s survey results also indicate an expectation that record catastrophe losses and reserve charges will weigh heavily on 2005’s underwriting results, pushing what would have been the industry’s largest underwriting profit ever into a loss situation. Analysts expect the industry to spring back in 2006 with a strong underwriting performance sufficient to generate a small underwriting profit.
Download/View File: 2006 Groundhog Forecast (PDF file)(166 K)
